May 16, 1996

Japan remains U.S. military dependent
Recent agreements amount to smoke and mirrors, Cato analyst says

Despite the government and media hype, the April summit agreements between
the United States and Japan do not alter Japan's status as a U.S. military
dependent, according to Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and
foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.

In a new Cato Foreign Policy Briefing, "Smoke and Mirrors: The
Clinton-Hashimoto Summit," Carpenter reviews the agreements reached and
concludes that changes in the U.S.-Japanese alliance are minor and not
structurally significant.

Although the United States agreed to consolidate its military bases on
Okinawa, Carpenter writes, "overall U.S. troop levels in Japan will remain
the same. There was no hint of an eventual drawdown in those forces, much
less that Washington would insist that Japan assume responsibility for its
own defense."  

Carpenter argues that the two much-touted changes in Tokyo's policy -- an
agreement to sell nonlethal supplies to U.S. forces in peacetime and a
supposed promise to review the constitutional ban on involvement in
collective defense missions -- are equally tepid.

"There is no commitment to provide military materiel, nor is there an
obligation to provide even nonlethal items in wartime," he notes.  At most,
the review "might lead to Japanese logistical support for U.S. military
operations during an East Asian crisis."

Carpenter calls for a new American policy of gradually withdrawing U.S.
troops from Japan.  Such a change, he argues, would create the necessary
incentive for Japan to play a regional political and military role
commensurate with its status as a great power.

Foreign Policy Briefing no. 41

The full text of this study is available from the Cato Institute's web site
(http://www.cato.org).


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